Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 14 brokers · 447 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-22.
Up to fourteen brokers model Sonova as a steady mid-single-digit organic grower whose reported FY-2026 top line was masked by a heavy currency drag. The differentiated debate is not revenue, where consensus is unusually tight, but profitability: the street models EBITA margin inflecting to 22.1% by FY-2027 and diluted EPS rising from CHF 8.68 to CHF 11.44 by FY-2028, led by the core Hearing Instruments business while cochlear implants only trough and slowly recover.
Hearing Instruments carries the model; cochlear implants merely trough and recover
The wholesale device business and hearing-instrument retail both compound mid-single digits; cochlear implants and the Sennheiser-led consumer-hearing line are small and were the FY-2026 drags.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total revenue | CHF 3.85bn | CHF 3.77bn | CHF 3.79bn | CHF 4.03bn | +0.4% | 14 |
| Hearing Instruments | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Hearing Instruments business | CHF 1.82bn | CHF 1.86bn | CHF 1.96bn | CHF 2.05bn | +5.3% | 12 |
| Revenue - Hearing instrument retail | CHF 1.48bn | CHF 1.48bn | CHF 1.58bn | CHF 1.70bn | +6.4% | 12 |
| Revenue - Consumer hearing business | CHF 241.72m | CHF 229.82m | CHF 218.46m | CHF 256.82m | -4.9% | 11 |
| Cochlear implants | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Cochlear implants | CHF 302.27m | CHF 273.69m | CHF 251.01m | CHF 268.99m | -8.3% | 12 |
EBITA margin inflects to 22.1% (FY-2027) as profit outgrows a roughly flat top line
EBITA, net income and EPS all step up double digits across FY-2027–FY-2028 while reported revenue is little changed; the lift is Hearing Instruments operating leverage, not cochlear.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITA margin(%) | 19.9% | 19.6% | 21.9% | 22.6% | +2.3pt | 11 |
| EBITA | CHF 762.98m | CHF 741.76m | CHF 826.02m | CHF 907.03m | +11.4% | 12 |
| Net income/(loss) | CHF 539.19m | CHF 522.32m | CHF 610.59m | CHF 674.27m | +16.9% | 14 |
| Segment EBITA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITA - Hearing instruments | CHF 731.59m | CHF 742.04m | CHF 616.01m | CHF 661.54m | -17.0% | 7 |
| EBITA - Cochlear implants | CHF 36.25m | CHF 6.55m | CHF 4.66m | CHF 19.04m | -28.9% | 7 |
| Per share | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted earnings per share(CHF) | CHF 9.08 | CHF 8.77 | CHF 10.31 | CHF 11.44 | +17.5% | 13 |
| Dividend per share(CHF) | CHF 4.09 | CHF 4.22 | CHF 4.74 | CHF 5.07 | +12.4% | 14 |
| Cash and return | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst free cash flow (FCF) | CHF 583.68m | CHF 601.59m | CHF 644.10m | CHF 726.73m | +7.1% | 12 |
The genuine disagreement is profitability, not the top line
On FY-2028 the modeled EBITA margin spans 19.8% to 24.3% even though revenue estimates cluster within about a percent; the debate is operating leverage and cash conversion, not demand.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITA margin(%) | FY-2028E | 22.7% | 22.3%–23.1% | 19.8%–24.3% | 9 |
| EBITA | FY-2028E | CHF 915.49m | CHF 892.34m–CHF 924.66m | CHF 767.77m–CHF 1.00bn | 10 |
| Analyst free cash flow (FCF) | FY-2027E | CHF 642.22m | CHF 612.40m–CHF 685.25m | CHF 520.30m–CHF 735.98m | 11 |
| Revenue - Cochlear implants | FY-2028E | CHF 268.87m | CHF 263.75m–CHF 278.77m | CHF 235.33m–CHF 288.92m | 10 |
The telling negative: cochlear-implant profit was nearly wiped out and barely recovers
Cochlear-implant EBITA fell from CHF 39m in FY-2025 to about breakeven in FY-2026 (CHF 0.07m), and the street models only a partial recovery to CHF 16m by FY-2028 — still well below FY-2025 — on revenue of roughly CHF 0.27bn. The segment EBITA line rests on just 3 brokers.
Deep coverage on the consolidated model; the segment and regional splits are thin
Consolidated revenue, EBITA, net income and EPS carry 13–14 brokers on fresh July 2026 revisions, but segment EBITA and the cochlear systems/upgrade split rest on only 3–4 brokers, and the Sennheiser, USA and regional (EMEA/Americas/Asia Pacific) revenue lines are one- or two-broker views — read them as a single analyst's model, not consensus.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.