Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-23.
Six-month markdown: revenue off ~7%, EPS only ~3%, now steadying
Both FY27 and FY28 revenue estimates fell about 7% over 180 days versus roughly 3% for normalized EPS, implying the street trimmed the top line while trusting margins to hold. Over the last 30 days both lines ticked up marginally, so the cutting appears to have paused.
Currency: CHF · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | FY2027 | CHF 4.11bn | CHF 3.90bn | CHF 3.83bn | CHF 3.83bn | -1.9% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | CHF 4.36bn | CHF 4.17bn | CHF 4.04bn | CHF 4.04bn | -3.0% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | CHF 10.91 | CHF 10.71 | CHF 10.56 | CHF 10.60 | -1.1% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | CHF 12.09 | CHF 11.79 | CHF 11.69 | CHF 11.73 | -0.5% |
Street models growth reaccelerating into FY29 as margin widens and net debt falls
Off reported FY26, consensus has revenue and EBITDA reaccelerating through FY29 with gross margin climbing above 73% and net debt more than halving — the earnings recovery is modelled as margin- and balance-sheet-led, not a top-line surge.
Currency: CHF · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2026A | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | CHF 3.74bn | CHF 3.83bn | CHF 4.04bn | CHF 4.32bn | -3.4% | 17 | CHF 3.59bn / CHF 3.87bn |
| EBITDA | CHF 947.67m | CHF 1.05bn | CHF 1.14bn | CHF 1.23bn | +0.8% | 14 | CHF 757.00m / CHF 1.03bn |
| EPS (normalized) | CHF 9.52 | CHF 10.60 | CHF 11.73 | CHF 13.11 | -12.0% | 18 | CHF 7.04 / CHF 10.48 |
| Gross margin | 71.6% | 73.7% | 73.7% | 73.8% | -0.7pt | — | — |
| Net debt | CHF 884.52m | CHF 713.38m | CHF 526.97m | CHF 338.09m | — | — | — |
Analysts span ~23% low-to-high on FY27 normalized EPS despite 19 covering
The FY27 normalized-EPS range (9.04 to 11.49 on 19 analysts) is unusually wide for a near year and echoes in GAAP net income — the street agrees on direction but not on how far the recovery has been de-risked.
Currency: CHF · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027E | CHF 10.60 | CHF 9.04–CHF 11.49 | 23.1% | 19 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | CHF 11.73 | CHF 10.35–CHF 12.50 | 18.3% | 18 |
| Net income (GAAP) | FY2027E | CHF 595.54m | CHF 526.21m–CHF 655.00m | 21.6% | 14 |
Hold-heavy street (9 of 19); price targets span CHF 169 to 300
Currency: CHF · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 4, Outperform 3, Hold 9, Underperform 1, Sell 2 | 19 |
| Consensus score | 2.68 | 19 |
| Target price | mean CHF 221.8; median CHF 220.0; high CHF 300.0; low CHF 169.0 | 19 |
Outer-year coverage thins and no beat/miss history is captured
FY29 EBITDA and GAAP net income carry just 11 estimates versus 14+ nearer in, so the outer-year recovery is the thinnest-covered part of the tape. The beat/miss feed is empty, so this tab cannot characterize how management has guided against prints.